Equity market volatility sparked by artificial intelligence fears and U.S. trade policy uncertainty has been pushed to the sideline by U.S. and Israeli military attacks on Iran. The most immediate impact of the military confrontation has been a sharp rise in the price of crude oil, which, in turn, has raised concerns about input costs and inflation. Global equity markets have experienced increased volatility, with both the U.S.– focused VIX Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index jumping to levels similar to those experienced after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. These “fear indexes” remain well below the brief spike that followed the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April 2025, however.
After just 2 weeks we cannot be certain about the duration or the end state of this war, but it appears to be the most serious conflict in the region since the Iraq War ended in 2011. Several scenarios, including a lengthy war ultimately involving ground troops, a negotiated cease-fire that leaves the Islamic regime in place, the emergence of a new, less confrontational secular regime in Iran, or an internecine civil war that leaves Iran crippled, dangerous and the source of desperate refugees, are possible. Inflationary pressure, spurred by higher oil prices and disrupted trade flows is a likely outcome unless the conflict ends quickly.
As of this writing, global equity markets have been resilient in the face of worrisome headlines and uncertainty. The MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index of developed and emerging markets is up over 2% year to date and more than 27% over the last year in U.S. Dollar terms. The U.S. Dollar, often seen as a safe harbor in times of stress, is little changed since the beginning of the year. Except for companies that are believed to be vulnerable to disruption by AI, we do not see bear-market valuations. Oil companies are posting new highs as some investors factor in a higher-for-longer oil price scenario, but even fuel-sensitive stocks like airlines are well above lows seen in 2020 when COVID-19 struck.
We have observed deadly conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere over the last two decades. TSW has come to believe that a tested, disciplined investment process is at its most valuable during turbulent times like this. Relying on consistent process, we do not chase market gyrations. We base investment decisions on price, business fundamentals, and a long-term perspective that looks past the latest viral post on X or “expert” soundbite. With a constant evaluation of downside risk and upside potential for every stock we hold, we have made modest adjustments to our portfolios in response to large price movements, but we have not significantly altered our exposures since this war began. Our international large- and small-cap portfolios are broadly diversified across geographies and economic sectors, avoiding large, concentrated bets that may carry excessive risks. In our view, this is no time for guesswork, rumor-chasing or unsupported risk-taking. We will adjust portfolios to new opportunities and risks as the fog of war clears and reliable information becomes available.
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